According to probability once you hit four tries on a 50/50 statistical calculation, odds are favorable that at least one in four will be a positive outcome**! (**IE: A Bret hug for nonch)
Since we are absolutely certain the number of Bret meetings we get in four concerts is going to be between zero and four, we can calculate the probability of any collection of results by adding the individual probabilities of each. Suppose we'd like to know the probability of getting fewer than three Bret hugs from four gigs. There are three ways this can happen: zero, one, or two m&g's . The probability of fewer than three, then, is the sum of the probabilities of these results, 1/16 + 4/16 + 6/16 = 11/16 = 0.6875, or a little more than two out of three. The probability of getting one flipping Bret hug photo in four freaking concerts is therefore 4/16 = 1/4 = 0.25.
Soooooooo I still say I wuz robbed.
And NO....Jemaine doesn't count.